As Uganda gets ready for Yoweri Museveni’s 2026-2031 political term of office after the 2026 general elections, quiet but persistent speculation is building around a cabinet reshuffle. At the centre of this conversation is Adonia Ayebare, Uganda’s long-serving Permanent Representative to the United Nations, whose name is increasingly being mentioned as a potential pick to head the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In the third part of Cabinet Fever series, The Pearl Times’ Samuel Kamugisha explores if, Adonia Ayebare will be Museveni’s choice for foreign affairs minister, especially since he has the blessing of first son and Chief of Defence Forces (CDF) Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba.
President Yoweri Museveni is due to be sworn in for a seventh consecutive elective term of office that will run for five years until 2031. Ascending to power in 1986 after a five-year bush war, Museveni, currently aged 81, will have ruled Uganda for 45 years nonstop in 2031.
The president is expected to name his cabinet in coming weeks, and there is speculation that Adonia Ayebare could fall in things.
What makes the Adonia Ayebare possibility particularly intriguing is the perceived influence of Muhoozi Kainerugaba. Over the past few years, Muhoozi has evolved from a military commander into a significant political actor whose views—formal or informal—are widely believed to shape high-level government decisions.
In fact, months ago, Muhoozi, his father’s senior advisor on special operations, and head of political organization Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU), publicly expressed admiration for Ayebare in a tweet that fueled speculation about his future role in government.
“I must thank our super diplomat, H.E. Adonia Ayebare, for quickly resolving any issues we might have had with our good friends the United States of America… I hope Mzee [President Museveni] appoints him as Minister of Foreign Affairs,” Muhoozi wrote, amidst opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine’s efforts to seek western sanctions against Museveni’s regime over the 2026 presidential elections.
In fact, Ayebare trashed Bobi Wine’s Capitol Hill engagements, as debate on whether Bobi Wine valued Pan-Africanism raged. (See related reporting Here, There and Over There).
Muhoozi’s statement on Adonia Ayebare, though informal, has been widely interpreted as a clear endorsement—something that carries weight given Muhoozi’s growing influence within Uganda’s political and security establishment.
At the centre of the decision, however, remains Yoweri Museveni, a leader known for carefully balancing loyalty, competence, and political expediency when appointing key ministers. For Museveni, the Foreign Affairs docket is not merely administrative—it is strategic, often entrusted to individuals who can defend Uganda’s interests abroad while maintaining firm allegiance to the ruling establishment.
Currently, the ministry is headed by Jeje Odongo, a seasoned politician and former security minister, with Okello Oryem serving as the long-time junior minister responsible for international cooperation. Both men represent the traditional model Museveni has often favored—politically grounded figures with deep roots in the ruling establishment and years of service in government.
Ayebare’s professional profile, however, positions him differently. Born in 1966, he began his career as a journalist before transitioning into diplomacy in the late 1990s. Over the years, he has built an impressive résumé, including serving as Uganda’s ambassador to Rwanda and Burundi, and playing a key role in regional peace processes in the Great Lakes region. His academic credentials are equally notable, with advanced degrees from institutions in the United States, including training in international security and diplomacy.
Since 2017, Ayebare has served as Uganda’s ambassador to the United Nations, a role that has elevated his global stature. In New York, he has been at the forefront of articulating Uganda’s positions on issues such as peacekeeping, refugee policy, climate change, and international governance.
More recently, he has been a vocal defender of Uganda’s electoral processes and sovereignty, pushing back against criticism from Western actors and institutions. His communication style—firm, articulate, and unapologetically pro-government—has earned him both praise and criticism, but it underscores his reliability as a state representative.
Yet, despite his credentials, Ayebare’s potential appointment must be viewed within the historical context of Uganda’s foreign affairs leadership under Museveni. The ministry has often been led by seasoned political figures rather than purely career diplomats.
One of the most prominent examples is Sam Kutesa, who served multiple terms as Foreign Affairs minister and remains one of the longest-serving figures in that position. Kutesa, a lawyer and businessman by training, combined political influence with diplomatic engagement, even rising to become President of the United Nations General Assembly in 2014.
Museveni and Kutesa have strong family ties knotted together by marriage, and a political history, with Kutesa previously beating Museveni in a parliamentary election, as detailed Here.
Another notable figure is James Wapakhabulo, a former Speaker of Parliament who later served as Foreign Affairs minister. His appointment reflected Museveni’s preference for individuals with deep political roots and legislative experience.
Similarly, Eriya Kategaya, a historical ally of Museveni and a key figure in Uganda’s liberation struggle, also held the portfolio. His presence in the ministry underscored the importance of trust and ideological alignment over technocratic expertise.
Even within the current setup, Okello Oryem has remained a constant figure, widely regarded as one of Uganda’s most experienced diplomats despite serving in a junior capacity. His longevity reflects the value Museveni places on institutional memory, but also highlights the limits that career diplomats sometimes face in rising to the very top of the ministry.
This historical pattern raises an important question: does Museveni prioritize political loyalty over professional diplomacy when appointing a Foreign Affairs minister? If so, Ayebare’s path to the position may not be as straightforward as his qualifications might suggest.
Unlike Kutesa or Kategaya—or even the current minister Jeje Odongo—Ayebare does not have a strong electoral base or a long history in frontline domestic politics. His influence is largely derived from his expertise and proximity to power rather than grassroots mobilization.
However, Uganda’s foreign policy environment is evolving. Increasing geopolitical competition, shifting alliances, and growing scrutiny from Western partners have created a need for more sophisticated diplomatic engagement.
In this context, a technocrat like Ayebare could offer a different kind of leadership—one rooted in global experience, intellectual depth, and strategic communication.
The question of timing is also critical. Ayebare is currently stationed at the United Nations, where he has built extensive networks and institutional knowledge. Removing him from that position could disrupt Uganda’s diplomatic continuity at a crucial time. On the other hand, bringing that experience back to Kampala could strengthen the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and align it more closely with global realities.
Muhoozi’s public praise—and explicit wish for his appointment—adds a new dimension to the debate. It suggests that Ayebare is not only respected internationally but also valued within Uganda’s inner circles of power.
Whether that translates into a cabinet appointment will depend on how much influence such endorsements carry in Museveni’s final decision-making process.
Still, Museveni is known for defying expectations. His cabinet decisions often reflect a delicate balancing act between competing interests—regional representation, political loyalty, historical alliances, and strategic priorities. In such a system, even the most qualified candidate is not guaranteed appointment.
In the end, Ayebare’s prospects hinge on more than just his résumé. They depend on how Museveni interprets Uganda’s current diplomatic needs, how much weight Muhoozi’s preferences carry, and whether the time is right to shift from politically anchored diplomacy to a more technocratic approach.
For now, the question remains open. But as conversations around Museveni’s next cabinet intensify, one thing is clear: Adonia Ayebare is no longer just Uganda’s man in New York—he is increasingly being viewed as a potential architect of the country’s foreign policy from Kampala.
It should be remembered that in defending government, Adonia Ayebare has clashed with UNAIDS executive director and wife to veteran opposition leader Dr Kizza Besigye, including on her past relationship with Museveni. (See Details Here, There and Over There).
Last year, Museveni gave Adonia Ayebare a special cabinet role, as reported Here.
This week, Museveni dissolved cabinet. Read about the names being floated for the Vice President and other minister jobs, as well as former ministers expected to return to cabinet Here, There and Over There.
The full outgoing cabinet list is Here.
